The swirl of rising air which formed Disturbance Two east of Bermuda yesterday is developing extratropical storm characteristics and is shifting towards the southwest where warm water will add some fuel to the convection cycle. This is looking to be a likely storm contender later today or overnight. More erratic changes in track are expected but will ultimately take the well-trodden path north-east into Atlantic anonymity. Gales force winds on its outer perimeter are expected to reach Bermuda but the worst excesses will remain seaward and this system will probably be short-lived.

Disturbance Three has piped up in the western Gulf of Mexico some 200 miles east-nor’east of the Rio Grande, heading northwest at around 20 knots. Two saving graces are a belt of dry air being drawn into the north-west quadrant, and a conveniently placed high pressure area across the south-eastern United States which will ensure this system moves promptly towards the coast of Texas overnight. The disturbance is not particularly well organised and a dash ashore should prevent any significant development. Nonetheless, this is producing some strong squalls and there is likely to be an impressive thunderstorm show across the Texas coast with some localised strong winds, heavy rain and a storm surge of up to 3 feet in places.

Stand by for lumpy water and strong winds in the western Atlantic and far north-western Gulf of Mexico.

Image courtesy Sean Cody