Thunderstorms are slowly building over the Bay of Campeche as the long-awaited low pressure cell begins to develop. Prospects for strengthening are mixed – warm water awaits, as does upper level wind shear, however the latter is likely to rule the day and prevent vertical convection. There is still no consensus with respect to eventual landfall but all stops between Brownsville and the Mississippi are being kicked about. It is far too early to say, but I’d put a blindfold pin in the Lake Charles area towards the end of next week with heavy squalls and some strong winds as it crosses the oil leases.

Stand easy.

Image Paul Raymond