Disturbance Five is drifting slowly north in the south-western Gulf of Mexico, currently sat around 100 miles north-west of the Yucatan Channel. This is now expected to pick up speed on Thursday and make headway towards the northern Gulf coast. The temporary delay has given this system a small window of opportunity to develop as it crosses the offshore lease area. Upper level shear is still expected to limit intensity, but may touch tropical storm strength. Landfall is still uncertain but most eyes are on south-western Louisiana.
Disturbance Seven has opened up into a large tropical wave tracking west across the southern Caribbean at a brisk 25 knots, but fairly weak and with limited development prospects.
Well to the north, our second storm of the season is BILL which is already heading safely seaward currently centred 300 miles east-sou’east of Cape Cod. This is at peak intensity with a hurricane severity index rating of just 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 for size and 2 for intensity) and accelerating to the northeast at 30 knots. This is producing winds gusting 45 knots over a very small windfield diameter of just 100 miles, which should not bother anyone at sea. This groundspeed and cooler water should be the end of BILL in the next 24 hours.
Disturbance Eight is now about a day’s steaming south-west of the Cape Verde Islands, following the well-beaten track to the west at 20 knots. There is a fertile patch in mid-Atlantic but wind shear awaits as (or if) it approaches the Caribbean.
A mildly lumpy day at sea in the western North Atlantic, otherwise stand easy.
Image Feras Antoon