From west to east;

Disturbance Ten which disappeared from our screens two days ago, has resurfaced in the Yucatan Channel moving north-west into the Gulf of Mexico. This is likely to cause some thunderstorms across the area but is not expected to develop.

Disturbance Twelve is half a day’s steaming east of Barbados, westbound at 18 knots and set to cross the Windward Islands tonight with some squalls and the odd thunderstorm. Wind shear awaits in the Caribbean which should keep development in check.

Just two days in the wake of Disturbance Twelve, Disturbance Fourteen has an entirely different prospect. Currently westbound at 21 knots and expected to reach the Windward Islands on Friday, this system has found a development window, the glass is falling quickly and the system is expected to reach tropical storm intensity in the next 24 hours. Pressure gradients are shaping up which may cause this to accelerate, which is in turn likely to dampen its ardour a little, but may yet have some impact when it crosses the islands and enters the Caribbean.

Weather watch on Windward Islands otherwise stand easy.

Image Lulu Belliveau