From west to east;
Tropical storm FRED is close to the south eastern coast of Puerto Rico moving west at 16 knots and will soon turn slightly towards the north to make a landfall in the Dominican Republic. FRED is making its presence known ashore with strong winds and heavy rain. Mudslide warnings are being issued across the entire island of Hispaniola. After crossing the island, FRED is expected to shape up for the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a brush past Florida Keys. Thereafter, there are numerous permutations of what may happen over the next 24 hours. Tropical storm warnings are of course in effect across the south and east of the Florida peninsula but a range of landfalls from Tampa (unlikely) to the Florida panhandle are being suggested. One plausible US Navy source even has a track towards the mouth of the Mississippi. A hearty slug of upper level shear, which may take the edge off FRED is also possible, but this will only be fleeting as it passes the Florida Keys area. FRED is wobbling a little on its current track which often inhibits the convection cycle and adds to uncertainty. None of this will be clear until FRED has crossed Hispaniola and enters the Gulf of Mexico but in the meantime, a storm watch will be needed across the island of Hispaniola and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Disturbance Twenty Seven is around 1,000 north-nor’east of the mouth of the Amazon headed a touch north of west at 18 knots. This is well to the north of track and may curve away before reaching the Caribbean. This is showing no signs of development.
Disturbance Twenty Nine is now a day west of the Cape Verde Islands headed west-nor’west at 18 knots which could shape up for the northernmost Leeward Islands this coming weekend. There is little indication of development at present but conditions may become more favourable as it moves west.
Stand by for tropical storm conditions across Hispaniola and later along the Gulf coast of Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Image Alexandra Silk