From west to east:
Having left Jamaica with extensive localised flooding, Tropical storm GRACE is now withing hailing distance of the Cayman Islands headed west-nor’west at 18 knots where a miserable day with 70 knot winds and torrential rain is expected as it passes. Conditions ahead are favourable for further development and GRACE is already gearing up to strengthen to hurricane intensity as it heads for the Yucatan peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche. Landfall over the northern Yucatan is expected to occur Thursday morning with a brief weakening before heading across the Bay of Campeche and a final landfall is expected on Saturday between Tampico and Veracruz as a category two hurricane. The more conservative modellers are expecting a peak hurricane severity index rating of 14 out of 50 (4 for size and 10 for intensity) which translates into wind speeds of 85 knots and a tropical storm force windfield of 100 miles, but I suspect may increase.
Fish storm HENRI is now centred around 140 miles south-sou’west of Bermuda headed slowly west. This cyclone is not following any of the traditional tracks but does seem to be keeping clear of land with a turn to the north expected before reaching the eastern seaboard and then north east before reaching Atlantic Canada, in theory anyway. Hard to say with confidence but it would seem that HENRI may be at peak now with a hurricane severity index rating of 5 (2 for size and 3 for intensity) which is based on its current maximum wind speeds of 70 knots and a tropical storm windfield radius of 60 miles.
Disturbance Thirty is now midway between the African coast and the Caribbean moving west around 14 knots. This has found a belt of residual Saharan air and showing no signs of development.
Disturbance Thirty One has slipped the African coast in the past few hours and may also run into dry air.
Stand by for tropical storm force winds and heavy rain across the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and towards the Yucatan Channel.
Image Paul Raymond