From west to east;
The scrag ends of NICHOLAS have crept into central Louisiana and stalled, barely recognisable as a tropical formation now but still with considerable amounts of water to distribute, mainly to the east of its nominal centre along the Gulf Coast as far as the western Florida Panhandle.
Disturbance Forty One is now centred some 300 miles south-sou’east of Cape Hatteras moving north at 9 knots. This is slowly becoming better organised and environmental conditions are becoming more favourable for this to develop something deep and meaningful over the coming 24 hours. All pressure gradients point at this heading safely north-east into the open Atlantic. Should this reach tropical storm intensity, this will be well clear of land.
Disturbance Forty Six is around 1,100 miles north-east of the mouth of the Amazon moving briskly west at 22 knots. A rapid ground speed and adverse environmental conditions are keeping a lid on development but both are likely to change. Whilst most professional agencies have this clearing land, we think this may to track a touch north of west and a window of opportunity is opening to the north-east of the Caribbean which could give this advancing system a whiff of Florida to it next week. Early days but a cautious weather watch would be wise.
Disturbance Forty Seven is tracking along the course of the Gambia River at 15 knots and expected to emerge off the African coast tonight. This has an early twinkle in its eye and has a cyclone positive environment ahead. Early days.
Stand by for more rainfall along the eastern Gulf coast and a cautious long term watch may be needed on the Florida area, otherwise stand easy.
Image Tiina-Rakel Liekki