Potential weather watch needed on north-eastern Caribbean.
From west to east:
Tropical Storm ODETTE is centred 265 miles south-east of Nantucket headed east-nor’east at 18 knots and intensifying. This is expected to peak with a hurricane severity index rating of 10 (6 for size and 4 for intensity) which translates from winds gusting 60 knots with a windfield radius of 250 miles. Although this is headed generally safely seaward, winds of tropical storm force are likely to brush south-eastern Newfoundland.
Disturbance Forty Six is currently 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands moving slightly north of west at 16 knots, showing signs of development and is close to tropical storm strength. The curve to the north of west should take the disturbance north of the Leeward Islands overnight on Monday. This has amassed some considerable moisture which will bring heavy rain across the north-eastern Caribbean. There is still some uncertainty surrounding intensity and track thereafter. Observers are keeping uncharacteristically tight lipped about this. Upper level shear awaits but this is diminishing and any calming impact is likely to be fleeting. Redevelopment once past the north-eastern Caribbean islands is almost certain and most tracks would take this towards Florida, the Bahamas or Bermuda next weekend. Weather watch needed.
Disturbance Forty Seven is 425 miles south-west of the Cape Verde Islands. This is expected to move north-west over the coming days and probably head slightly north of the convergence zone where prospects for this to develop are positive, but in any event well clear of land.
Filthy weather at sea in the vicinity of ODETTE and a weather watch needed on the developing cyclone approaching the north-eastern Caribbean, otherwise stand easy.
Image United Artists/H Hefner