From west to east;
TERESA made tropical storm intensity overnight but began weakening earlier than expected due to the dominance of an approaching front and a blast of upper level wind shear. Now centred around 180 miles about north of Bermuda, the remnants of this short-lived storm are expected to turn to the north-northeast and accelerate into Atlantic obscurity.
What remained of indecisive ODETTE also faded into the north Atlantic and is no longer considered a development threat.
Category Three Hurricane SAM is now around 850 miles east of the Leeward Islands headed a cat’s whisker north of west at 10 knots. With the source of dry air now tapped, this is becoming a beast of a storm with winds gusting 130 knots already and the glass continuing to fall. There is a wobble ahead in the next day or two which despite SAM continuing to intensify, is expected to bring the storm to its peak early. At that time, the storm is predicted to have a hurricane severity index rating of 22 (6 for size and 16 for intensity). Thereafter, an eyewall replacement cycle will probably result in weakening although winds in the 110 to 120 knot range are expected to continue for a few more days. This will be a prolonged powerful hurricane. I don’t see much in the way of resolution to the question of track but a pass north of the Caribbean, missing the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands now seems most likely. It remains too soon to say with any certainty if there will be any direct impacts for the islands of Bermuda, the northeast United States, or Atlantic Canada but a turn to the north-east is now the most likely, with the chances of a swipe at Florida or further west diminishing quickly.
Stand by for muck and filth around SAM otherwise, stand easy.
Image NASA/H Hefner