From west to east;

Category Four hurricane SAM is currently 500 miles north-east of the northernmost Leeward Islands headed north-west at 8 knots. A whiff of dry air and an anticipated short burst of upper level shear are expected to cause SAM to wobble in the next day or two before the storm turns to the north-east. This could push the track further east than originally predicted which is capital news for the good folk of Bermuda whose storm cones have been busy this season, but as yet not needed.  As this predicted track takes SAM east of Bermuda and the worst excesses of the storm are to the east of the eye, this is further welcome news for Bermuda. Until SAM wobbles, it will continue to intensify but is almost at peak now with a hurricane severity index rating of 22 out of a possible 50 points (6 for size and 16 for intensity) which equates to winds gusting 145 knots and a windfield radius of 200 miles. In relative terms, this is a vicious little brute which is good to see passing clear of land, but do spare a thought for any poor soul at sea in such conditions. In the longer term, SAM may have something for Newfoundland, but anticipated impact on Bermuda is reducing consistently.

Almost on the same longitude but way north, the scrag ends of PETER have formed a new, well organised low pressure cell but seem to lack sufficient vertical convection to produce anything deep and meaningful other than perhaps a brief burst of energy tomorrow. Thereafter, PETER should accelerate to the north-east and give me a chance to repeat my hilarious ‘petering out’ description, which seemed to fall on deaf ears last time I used it.

Disturbance Fifty One has stalled around 950 miles north-east of the mouth of the Amazon, due in part to Disturbance Fifty gaining ground some 600 miles astern. Despite the approach of a potential dominant suitor, aerial images of Disturbance Fifty One show some determined rotation and some signs of vertical convection, but seems unlikely to be able to resist the advances of    its ardent pursuer which may weaken its apparent resolve.

Aggressive Disturbance Fifty is a day west of the Cape Verde Islands headed west at 12 knots. This has a lusty look about it and is expected to consume its predecessor as it becomes more organised before turning early to the north-west which should take it safely clear of the Caribbean. That’s the theory anyway. Interaction between low pressure cells always introduces uncertainty. Early days yet.

Stand by for hurricane intensity conditions at sea in the vicinity of SAM otherwise, stand easy.

Image Feras Antoon