La Niña and frontal activity to slug out cyclone development battle.
From west to east:
Disturbance Fifty Six is now located over the eastern Caribbean moving slightly north of due west at a steady 15 knots. Enhanced thunderstorm activity and showery weather are expected for the Netherlands Antilles as it makes its way west, otherwise no tropical development is expected.
Disturbance Fifty Seven has piped up 700 miles north-east of the mouth of the Amazon, westbound at 10 knots. This will head west-nor’west over the next few days and is expected to enhance thunderstorm activity across the south-eastern Caribbean early next week. There is a slight window of opportunity for this briefly develop before reaching the Caribbean but upper level shear is still likely to have the last say.
There is considerable debate around the ringside over the unusually abrupt cease in meteorological sparring. There has not been a named storm in the Atlantic since SAM became a post-tropical storm on October 5th and records are being broken daily by the lengthening lull in cyclone development. Increasing frontal activity typically indicates the final countdown for the storm season which has started early, bringing cooler air into the ring and producing upper level shear across the region. Indeed, one or two less reliable observers have decided the Atlantic basin has had its day and are already throwing the towel in. Now, in the last bout of the season, there is a late title challenge from La Niña. This typically signals more ducking and diving in the Atlantic basin for tropical systems. The fuel is there with warmer than average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, where tropical systems usually square up at this time of the season, and the increased concern is with shorter lead times as these are likely to form closer to home. The fight is now between a late La Niña and early frontal activity and which of the two can pack the heaviest punch. This could go the full twelve rounds.
Stand easy. For now.
Image Rocco Siffred