On this nominal first day of the 2022 storm season, we have two disturbances on radar.
The scrag ends of Pacific hurricane AGATHA have rallied in the form of an open trough across the southern Bay of Campeche and forming Disturbance One. This will cross the Yucatan peninsula tonight with little development expected but will cause storm heavy rain and gusty winds across areas of south-eastern Mexico. Thereafter, this will reappear in the south-eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight tomorrow and start shaping up for the Florida Keys and south Florida. Despite upper level shear, one or two respected modellers have this down as a weak tropical storm tracking across southern Florida over the weekend before emerging into the Atlantic. We’ll see. Regardless of tropical development, this will produced heavy rainfall and squalls over western Cuba, south Florida, and the Bahamas over the weekend.
Disturbance Two is forming some 200 miles to the north of the Bahamas with increasing thunderstorm activity. As this is already moving to the east, even if it does develop, it should remain well clear of land.
Stand by for squalls in the southern Bay of Campeche, otherwise stand easy.
Image Richard Desmond