Disturbance Three has stalled close to the Mosquito Coast of Nicaragua and looks to be veering away from its previous track ashore and shaping up to run north towards the Yucatan peninsula. If it gets that far, conditions in the Bay of Campeche are fertile for cyclone development where the general consensus is for a turn to the west and a landfall in the vicinity of Veracruz. Given the extent of interaction with land as this heads north, there is some uncertainty with this model in my view and the likelihood of development is on the increase. I wouldn’t raise any storm cones yet but a close watch would be prudent.

Stand easy.