Signs of development across the Atlantic convergence zone

| Storm Report 2022

From west to east:

Despite the Canadian guy’s assertion that this would develop into a significant tropical storm, Disturbance Three dissipated over southern Mexico and is off our radar now.

Disturbance Four is an open trough which has piped up to the west of Trinidad, westbound at 15 knots. This won’t develop as long as it retains its current shape, but will produce scattered thunderstorms across the Windward Islands, northern Venezuela and onto the Netherlands Antilles today and tomorrow on its inexorable track towards central America.

Disturbance Five has formed around 300 miles south-west of the Cape Verde Islands with aerial imagery showing a spread of scattered thunderstorms to the south. This is currently inhaling Saharan air which will inhibit development, but is expected to make the Atlantic crossing. Late next weekend, this will approach the easternmost islands of the Caribbean where conditions will be more favourable for tropical development. Long-range forecasts come with their usual cynicism and disclaimers, but this may need watching as it makes its way west.

Stand easy.