Newbie Disturbance Eight slipped from an occluded front over the mouth of the Mississippi and began developing disorganised scattered thunderstorms. This is slowly moving south-west and is expected to head seaward later today. Above average sea surface temperatures are likely to assist in development however a limited amount of sea time may not give sufficient opportunity for anything deep and meaningful – at most, a weak tropical storm. Regardless of development, this will produce heavy rainfall for south-eastern Texas and southwest Louisiana.
Disturbance Five has resurfaced close to the Netherlands Antilles headed west at a sprightly 20 knots. Despite a good spread of thunderstorms, development conditions are unfavourable at this speed and the low-pressure cell is expected to continue to race towards central America at a good pace without developing.
Disturbance Six is now 900 miles east-sou’east of Trinidad moving west by north at 15 knots with increasingly organised shower and thunderstorm activity around its nominal centre. On this heading, the disturbance will move across Trinidad and the southern Windward Islands overnight tomorrow. Development conditions are improving and this could form a weak tropical storm before reaching the Windward Islands. Thereafter, the well-beaten track across the far southern Caribbean is most likely, with a final landfall forecast to occur in Nicaragua by next weekend. Conditions for the southern Caribbean are favourable for development and this may form something of more significance as it heads west. A turn to the north towards the Gulf of Mexico is not expected as things stand.
Disturbance Seven is now 950 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands moving rapidly west at 20 knots. This has become a little better organised overnight with increasing thunderstorms and signs of squalls radiating from its nominal centre but would need to slow down for any meaningful convection to take place. This should reach the islands of the far eastern Caribbean on Friday bringing a heavy rain and gusty winds, as things stand.
Weather watch on Gulf of Mexico coast and towards Windward Islands otherwise stand easy.