Tropical storm developing over southern Caribbean
From west to east;
Disturbance Eight is still lounging around in the northern Gulf of Mexico, loosely centred around 200 miles south of Lake Charles. This remains quite disorganised with only a few scattered thunderstorms to the east. This will nudge slowly west over the next day or two shaping up for the mid Texas coast. Conditions remain only marginally favourable for development before it moves inland overnight on Thursday causing very heavy rainfall across the mid and upper Texas coast.
Disturbance Five is almost ashore in Nicaragua now as it continues west at 22 knots. From our viewpoint, this is probably done and dusted.
Disturbance Six passed between Trinidad and the Windward Islands overnight and is now around 180 miles west of Grenada. This is still westbound at a cracking 21 knots but nonetheless becoming more organised with an increasingly menacing formation of thunderstorms and reports of tropical storm force winds in its wake. This is predicted to maintain this speed as it passes the Netherlands Antilles later today with tropical storm conditions and a widening windfield which will impact coastal and offshore areas of northern Venezuela and Colombia. I would not be surprised if this was to be recognised as a named tropical storm soon – typically immediately after I hit ‘send’. This is still expected to make a landfall on Friday over southern Nicaragua as a strong tropical storm. Only the ground speed is preventing this from reaching hurricane intensity, and that can change at any time. Whilst we do not include the Pacific in our daily bulletins, it seems highly likely that this will jump the fence into the Pacific and develop into a significant cyclone. For those who must, the current hurricane severity index rating is 4 out of a possible 50 (2 points each for size and intensity) which equates to winds gusting 50 knots and a windfield radius of 90 miles. Predicted peak is being estimated as 9 (4 for size and 5 for intensity) which translates to winds gusting 65 knots and a windfield radius of 130 miles which is still very conservative nonsense in my view.
Disturbance Seven is now just over 1,100 miles east-sou’east of Trinidad moving rapidly west-northwest at 22 knots. This remains disorganised and development is currently inhibited due to the advance speed and a brief wobble overnight when it absorbed Disturbance Nine which was in hot pursuit. This will track across the islands of the eastern Caribbean with a slight turn towards the north which will take it close to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday with increasing thunderstorms and gusty winds. Conditions for development would seem to be marginal but given its track may ultimately be towards the Gulf of Mexico, I’d keep a weather eye on it.
Stand by for tropical storm conditions across the southern Caribbean.