Late storm developing in far south-western Caribbean
From west to east,
Disturbance Five dissipated overnight as it crossed the coast of southern Nicaragua.
Disturbance Eight is almost at a standstill over the north-western Gulf of Mexico, centred around 100 miles southeast of Corpus Christi. This has opened out into a weak trough which will not present any significant storm threat but will be a rainmaker as it pushes slowly to the north-nor’west and makes a landfall around Matagorda Bay tonight with heavy rainfall across a wide area.
Disturbance Six is passing the northern tip of Colombia with some tropical storm force winds to the north of its centre. This has still not been upgraded to a tropical storm but a slight reduction in ground speed over warm waters and signs of organised thunderstorm activity makes this only a matter of time before moving into far southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica tomorrow. Whilst we do not report on matters Pacific, a number of reliable commentators have this down as a hurricane soon after crossing the fence. This currently has a fairly low hurricane severity index rating of just 2 (1 each for size and intensity) which equates to winds gusting almost 50 knots and a small windfield radius of 85 miles. A more sensible peak HSI rating of 14 out of a possible 50 points (6 for size and 8 for intensity) is being predicted (although in my opinion, still rather shy) but this is now expected to be over Pacific waters.
Disturbance Seven is now 500 miles east of Trinidad headed west-nor’west at 24 knots. This still lacks any viable surface organisation and the high ground speed will limit any development for the time being. This will track across the islands of the eastern Caribbean, including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tomorrow into Saturday with increasing thunderstorms, heavy rain and some strong squalls. There seems to be no concern amongst the chatterers that this may enter the Gulf of Mexico but I would suggested interested parties maintain a weather watch.
Stand by for tropical storm conditions in the far south-western Caribbean.