Disturbance Seven is now in the eastern Bay of Campeche moving to the west-nor’west at 18 knots. This has me puzzled as there is very little upper level shear and the sea surface temperature is well above average, giving me just cause to have this down as a cyclone in the making. Not even the Canadian guy agreed with me, which is quite embarrassing. This track is expected to continue over the next few days, taking the disturbance across the southern Bay of Campeche and eventually into southern Mexico with scattered showers and the odd crack of thunder. Let’s hope this old sailor remains wrong.

Stand easy.