Whilst it may seem that this is a rather lengthy period of inactivity, none of the credible agencies are reducing their season forecasts. When cyclone production resumes, it is still expected to be very active. Today, we have just two weak systems on radar.

Disturbance Thirteen is now a weak open tropical wave centred close to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands moving to the west-nor’west at a brisk 20 knots. This is unlikely to develop beyond the bands of showers and thunderstorms currently crossing the Leeward Islands as it pushes across the north-western Caribbean over the weekend. This will be in the southern Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday where wiser commentators than I are quite comfortable that this won’t develop into anything deep and meaningful.

Disturbance Fourteen is now around midway between the African coast and the Windward Islands moving west at a leisurely 11 knots. This has a whiff of Saharan air to it which will prevent vertical convection but is expected to produce enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity across the Leeward Islands southward into northern South America early next week.

Stand easy.