Disturbance Thirteen is an open trough stretching out from central Cuba south into the north-western Caribbean moving a tad north of west at 18 knots. This will soon enter the Gulf of Mexico and cross the southern part into eastern Mexico overnight on Monday without developing, apparently.

Disturbance Fourteen is now centred around 400 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon moving briskly west at 22 knots. This is also an open wave with dim development prospects as it shapes up to pass the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands on Sunday night before entering the north-eastern Caribbean. The long range modellers have this headed for the Yucatan peninsula without developing.

Disturbance Fifteen has piped up a day west of the Cape Verde moving west-nor’west at 12 knots. Aerial imagery shows very disorganised showers and thunderstorms over a wide area. This also faces adverse development conditions although marginally less adverse as it approaches the Caribbean late next week.

Stand easy.