Brief, weak development expected over southern Gulf of Mexico
Disturbance Nineteen is located over the far western part of the Gulf of Honduras just east of Belize. The disturbance has become better organised with increasing thunderstorms. Fortunately, the disturbance will be moving ashore in a few hours over Belize and northern Guatemala. The disturbance will then track across the Yucatan peninsula later today and emerge over the southwest Gulf early tomorrow. The disturbance is then forecast to move west-nor’west across the southwest Gulf overnight on Friday and could briefly become a tropical depression before moving inland over northeast Mexico overnight on Saturday with some strong winds and heavy rainfall. The main area of thunderstorms and gusty winds with this system is forecast to remain south of Brownsville. This disturbance poses no threat to the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Disturbance Twenty is centred 300 miles north-east of the mouth of the Amazon moving to the west at 15 knots. This motion is expected to continue over the next few day but will remain disorganised as environmental conditions remain unfavourable and tropical development.
Disturbance Twenty Three is about one day’s steaming south-west of the Cape Verde Islands headed west at 15 knots. Saharan air is taking bites out of the convection cycle and tropical development is not expected.
Stand easy.