Wellingtons in Texas…
From west to east;
Disturbance Nineteen has made a spirited attempt to rally as it crosses warm, unchurned water in the western Gulf of Mexico but wisps of rising air are being effectively put to the sword by upper level wind shear. Currently just 140 miles south-sou’east of the mouth of the Rio Grande headed north-nor’west at 12 knots, this is expected to make landfall close to Brownsville overnight tonight without development. One or two of the more determined forecasters are raising their battle pennants for this to touch tropical storm strength before landfall but I would take that with a pinch of salt. At worst, this will cross the beach with winds gusting 40 knots and produce a considerable rainmaker with isolated accumulations of up to 5 inches close to the coast of north-eastern Mexico and deep south Texas.
Disturbance Twenty has crossed the Leeward Islands and has pushed into the eastern Caribbean galloping to the west at a brisk 24 knots. High ground speed and a whiff of upper level shear is keeping a lid on surface development, a situation which is expected to continue as this advances across the Caribbean.
Disturbance Twenty Three has camped out some two day’s advance west-sou’west of the Cape Verde Islands. Thunderstorm activity has increased with the disturbance, but it remains disorganised as it battles airborne sand. Tropical development is not expected.
Disturbance Twenty Four has charged away from the African coast with swords drawn as it heads west at 14 knots. Despite the early apparent thirst for glory, a defensive wall of sand awaits and as things stand, it has a low chance of development.
Wellington boots and umbrellas for the coast of southern Texas otherwise stand easy.