Speculative long-term watch on the southern Gulf of Mexico.
From west to east:
Disturbance Nineteen crossed the bar around 60 miles south of Brownsville overnight with hardly a peep, save for some gusty squalls and isolated patches of heavy rain.
Disturbance Twenty has opened out into a weak tropical wave as it crosses the southern Caribbean. Currently loosely centred around 100 miles north of Lake Maracaibo and westbound at 18 knots, the disturbance is very disorganised and has limited shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it. This system is expected to turn to the west-nor’west soon and shape up to move ashore over the Yucatan peninsula on Thursday before emerging into the eastern Bay of Campeche early on Friday. Whilst this is highly speculative at this point, the longer term view thereafter is that will continue to the west across the Bay of Campeche before moving into eastern Mexico on Saturday. Whilst environmental conditions are still not quite favourable for cyclone development, things are changing and this may have a window of opportunity as it crosses the Bay of Campeche.
Disturbance Twenty Three has also spread out into a weak wave centred more or less 850 miles north-east of the mouth of the Amazon moving to the west at 17 knots. This is expected to progress in a west-nor’westerly direction and cross the Windward Islands on Thursday night before continuing west into the southern part of the eastern Caribbean by Friday – as things stand, without tropical development.
Disturbance Twenty Four is close to the Cape Verde Islands headed west at 15 knots. This is expected to continue to move to the west but will struggle against airborne sand.
Speculative long-term watch on the southern Gulf of Mexico, otherwise stand easy.