Gulf of Mexico set to dodge another cyclone punch.

| Storm Report 2022

From west to east:

Disturbance Twenty is a tropical wave centred around 180 miles south of Jamaica moving a touch north of west at 18 knots. This remains very disorganised and currently only has limited shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it. This low pressure system is expected to move in a west-nor’westerly direction towards the Yucatan peninsula before emerging into the eastern Bay of Campeche overnight on Thursday before shaping up to move into eastern Mexico on Saturday. The fact that environmental conditions due to upper level wind shear are preventing this from developing as it moves over unchurned, warm water with patches of cyclone-fertile rising air is extremely fortuitous. Once again the Gulf of Mexico dodges another cyclone blow.

Disturbance Twenty Three is also a weak, open wave, currently two days’ steaming east of the Windward Islands, westbound at 20 knots. This is quite disorganised with little of note appearing on satellite imagery.  This low is expected to track to the west-nor’west before reaching the islands of the eastern Caribbean overnight on Thursday and thereafter head across the Caribbean without developing  – as things stand.

Disturbance Twenty Four is now 350 miles to the west of the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west at 18 knots fanning out scattered and disorganised showers and thunderstorms. This will move in a west-nor’westerly direction across the tropical Atlantic to pass to the north-east of the northern Leeward Islands next weekend by which time environmental conditions for cyclone development are expected to be marginally favourable. Early days.

Stand easy.