Threat to Gulf of Mexico gives way to long term watch on central Caribbean.
From west to east:
Disturbance Twenty, which raised some hopes of Gulf of Mexico development amongst the keen storm enthusiasts, lost the battle with upper level wind shear overnight and is off radar now.
Disturbance Twenty Three is a weak tropical wave centred approximately 500 miles east of the Windward Islands headed a touch north of west at 20 knots. This is still being sapped by Saharan air and is only producing isolated shower and thunderstorm activity. A track towards the west-nor’west is expected over the next few days to take the disturbance across the Windward Islands overnight on Thursday but may become a little better organised as it passes south Hispaniola where upper level shear seems to be easing up. In the meantime, no development is expected.
Disturbance Twenty Four is also a weak tropical wave, currently four days’ steaming west of the Cape Verde Islands. This is also expected to move in a west-nor’westerly direction across the Atlantic and reappear in the Caribbean passing south of Hispaniola next week where environmental conditions are expected to be marginal for tropical development. Far too early to say at this stage, but a long term watch may be needed on this one.