Signs of rejuvenation of the Atlantic cyclone production line.

| Storm Report 2022

From west to east:

Disturbance Twenty Three is a day’s steaming east of the Windward Islands headed west-nor’west at 16 knots. Aerial imagery shows that this has developed some surface rotation and thunderheads are gathering albeit quite slowly. As this passes the Windward Islands tomorrow night it will produce an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. Thereafter this could benefit from moderately improving environmental conditions in the north-east Caribbean as it passes south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola over the weekend and may need a weather watch.

Disturbance Twenty Four is a weak tropical wave centred around 950 miles north-east of the mouth of the Amazon, which is more or less mid-Atlantic. Despite the heavy going, this also has some signs of surface rotation with aerial imagery showing limited shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it. Despite this spirited effort, this is still expected to dissipate in a few days without tropical development.

We have been watching pressure gradients and cloud formations as far east as sub-Saharan Africa with some interest for over a week now. It now seems that some of the heated air patterns are getting their act together and starting to head for the Atlantic, with the first puff of rotating low pressure crossing the coast of Senegal as early as tomorrow night and more to follow. With environmental conditions in the Atlantic beginning to turn in the favour of cyclone development, it is likely that this is the last week to ten days of stalemate and the likely resumption of the Atlantic production line. Some of the professional agencies are quite sharp and may pick up on this in a few days.

Stand easy.