Experts surprised by exciting new movement in eastern Atlantic.
From west to east:
Disturbance Twenty Three is passing south of Hispaniola, currently centred 100 miles off Haiti moving to the west-nor’west at 15 knots, which is expected to press on into the western Caribbean. There are no signs of surface organisation or convection from aerial imagery but conditions ahead are becoming more favourable for development. Upper level shear is likely to keep this away from the Gulf of Mexico but a weather watch may be needed over the southern Bay of Campeche next week.
Disturbance Twenty Five is currently centred 800 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon moving to the west at 15 knots. Steering currents are expected to slow this down and push it to the west-nor’west in the next day or two, towards the northern Leeward Islands. Whilst this is rather dishevelled at the moment, deceleration in an improving environment is likely to allow this to organise as it approaches the north-eastern Caribbean, where a weather watch will also be needed.
A good number of the more perceptive weather agencies have been very quick on the buzzers with an exciting new disturbance leaving the African coast today, with another to follow. Just three days after we identified them. These are quite likely to have a cyclone-positive environment ahead as they make the Atlantic crossing – the second perhaps more than the first. Early days though.
Stand easy.