Weather watch on three Atlantic disturbances.
From west to east:
Disturbance Twenty Three has decelerated and not moved far from yesterday’s position some 125 miles south-east of Haiti. This looks to be getting under way again and is expected to set a course and speed to the west-nor’west at 15 knots taking the disturbance into the western Caribbean over the next three days. This is still quite disorganised and thunderstorms associated with it do not show any pattern which should give cause for concern. Having said that, conditions ahead are becoming marginally favourable for cyclone development if the track takes it towards the southern Bay of Campeche although steering currents aloft should keep this from straying too far north into the Gulf of Mexico, irrespective of development. Weather watch needed.
Maverick Disturbance Twenty Six has piped up 600 miles east of Bermuda showing a weak, early circulation. This is heading north and unlikely to approach land and may indeed dissipate quickly. The significance of this particular disturbance is that it has survived in a region which has been shrouded in sand for several weeks and may further indicate the season’s revival.
Disturbance Twenty Five has continued pushing west at 14 knots, now centred three day’s steaming east of the Windward Islands. This is expected to decelerate and turn slightly north of west over the next day or two to pass north of the Leeward Islands overnight on Thursday, which is my guess at an as yet unknown ground speed. Despite the decrease in airborne sand, this does have a slightly unfavourable development environment ahead which is to be welcomed as this may approach the south-eastern seaboard of the United States in a week from now. One or two of the more respected agencies are already taking a more aggressive view. For me, it’s early days but the prudent mariner would be keeping a keen watch on this.
Those sharp-eyed professionals have spotted another westbound disturbance expected to move off the African coast tomorrow, just four days after we did. This system will immediately encounter favourable conditions and bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Cape Verde Islands. We won’t get a bead on its track until it is seaborne. Weather watch here too.