Busy skies over busy seas as season revives.
From west to east;
Disturbance Twenty Three is now well ashore and has dissipated over the mountains of central Mexico.
Disturbance Twenty Five is still slow steaming towards the Leeward Islands. Currently centred some 700 miles east of Barbados and moving to the west-nor’west at 6 knots, aerial imagery is showing early signs of organisation and there is a chance that this could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm in a couple of days. The disturbance is still expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands overnight on Friday then north of Puerto Rico on Sunday before turning to the north and passing well to the east of the Bahamas early next week. There is some idle chatter that this may approach Bermuda, but it is absolute nonsense to speculate on a system which is at walking pace and has two major course alterations ahead as well as interaction with several land masses.
Another wildcat, Disturbance Twenty Eight has piped up way out in the north-central Atlantic. This is over 1,000 miles west of the Azores and far from a threat to any land mass at the moment. This is likely to be an oddball as it is currently stationary and likely to be kicked about by frontal systems which could result in it waving around like a stoker’s mop for a few days and quite possibly developing. As things stand, this is only going to bother fish and sailors.
Disturbance Thirty is now centred midway between the African coast and the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west-nor’west at 10 knots. Environmental conditions are fairly favourable for development and this could become a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm over the next couple of days. By Friday, the environmental conditions will deteriorate and may see this off early.
A strong tropical wave is lining up to slip the African coast overnight on Friday. This has a twinkle in its eye and may have a rush of blood soon after launching, but still looks set for an early turn into sub-tropical Atlantic disappointment.