Fish storm DANIELLE close to hurricane strength.
From west to east:
Disturbance Twenty Five is now about 350 miles east-nor’east of Guadeloupe moving west-nor’west at 10 knots, shaping up to pass safely north of the Caribbean. A turn towards the north is expected overnight on Sunday by which time it may reach tropical storm intensity before heading seaward and, as things stand, clear of land.
As often happens in the course of producing these bulletins, tropical storm DANIELLE is likely to hit hurricane intensity the moment I hit the ‘send’ button, so anything I say is likely to be out of date almost instantly. Nonetheless, aerial images show a fairly well-formed storm with a well-defined eye and the most recent observations I have seen report of winds gusting 80 knots and a windfield radius of just 70 miles. For those who need to know, this equates to a hurricane severity index rating of 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 for size and 4 for intensity) but is expected to reach 15 (6 for size and 9 for intensity) and wind gusts touching 100 knots. This is a nasty little bruiser but fortunately only likely to bother fish and sailors. Currently centred about 650 miles west of the Azores, this will probably lounge around in the same area for a few days before accelerating to the north-east. At the moment, none of the modellers have this tracking near land although one or two are mulling about some sweeps close to the Azores.
Disturbance Twenty Seven is now centred 180 miles north-west of the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west-nor’west at 10 knots. This is heading into an area of less favourable environmental conditions and tropical development is not expected.
A long-awaited tropical wave is forecast to slip the coast of west Africa tomorrow and make a beeline for the Cape Verde Islands. The great and the good are now talking down their previous excitement over this development as environmental conditions across the area where it will be moving are forecast to be marginal for development. Personally, I still think this will have a bit between its teeth at some time but I won’t stick my neck out.
Stand by for muck and filth in the north-eastern Atlantic.