Conditions set to worsen in western Atlantic
From west to east:
Tropical Storm EARL is clear of the islands of the north-east Caribbean now, some 180 miles east-nor’east of Puerto Rico, headed north at little more than walking pace although there is still some residual rainfall and risk of flooding over the northern Leeward Islands, BVI and the U.S. Virgin Islands for a few more hours. This course and speed should continue for the next couple of days before a turn to the north-east. The time, place and magnitude of this turn is of importance to Bermuda as it could make the difference between impact or a safe passing distance. At the moment, EARL is producing winds gusting 60 knots over a windfield radius of 110 miles, which equates to a hurricane severity index rating (HSI) of just 3 out of 50 (1 for size and 32 for intensity) but this will increase. Convection is on the increase although there is a puff of south-westerly wind shear displacing the cyclone to the east of its nominal centre. At around the anticipated time of the turn, this wind shear will all but disappear and EARL will be off the leash to develop significantly. There is a high risk of this reaching category three hurricane intensity, and unfortunately peaking around the time of closest approach to Bermuda. This will by then produce winds in excess of 100 knots and a windfield radius of 150 miles equating to an HSI rating of 19 (8 for size and 11 for intensity), which I would suggest is rather conservative. I’m not an advocate of long range predictions for slow moving systems at this time of the season, but would suggest hurricane response plans are dusted off for Bermuda.
Category one hurricane DANIELLE is currently centred around 700 miles west of the Azores. This fish storm is at peak now with 100 knot gusts over a windfield radius of 110 miles which equates to an HSI of 13 (6 for size and 7 for intensity). This has started moving slowly to the north-nor’east which will continue and keep the storm over the open Atlantic. DANIELLE will dissipate as it starts to accelerate in two to three days’ time and will probably be off radar by Friday.
Disturbance Twenty Nine is still loafing about close to the south-east of the Cape Verde Islands, but showing signs of moving to the west soon. A turn to the northwest is expected in a couple of days’ time. It now seems unlikely that this will progress far beyond the central sub-tropical Atlantic however conditions could become more favourable for development over the coming days.
Disturbance Twenty Seven is passing over the Cape Verde Islands moving slightly north of west at 10 knots. A turn to the north and northeast is expected over the next couple of days. No development is expected, at the moment.
Stand by for worsening conditions in the western Atlantic and continued mucky weather west of the Azores.