EARL clearing Bermuda, but still blowing a hoolie
From west to east:
Category Two hurricane EARL is now 250 miles north-east of Bermuda and headed safely north-east at 18 knots after an eleventh hour wobble increased the closest point of approach to 120 miles late last night. This still swept the islands with tropical storm force winds and heavy rain overnight however the worst excesses remained offshore. EARL is still producing winds of close to 100 knots and may have a few more hours of deepening before ground acceleration plays havoc with the storm’s convection cycle and it begins to lose shape and organisation. The islands should be losing the last of the heavy rain and strong winds in the next few hours. As for the cyclone’s forward track, this will still blow a hoolie for another 12 hours or so until it peaks with a hurricane severity index (HSI) rating of 26 out of a possible 50 (18 for size and 8 for intensity) which is likely to produce winds touching 100 knots over a tropical storm force windfield radius of 300 miles. This should ease up until it merges with an eastbound front and tangles with the last knockings of DANIELLE tomorrow. This is now only of interest to fish and sailors although may produce some gale force winds for Newfoundland.
Disturbance Twenty Nine is now 1100 miles east-nor’east of the Leeward Islands headed west-nor’west at 15 knots. Against the odds, aerial imagery is showing a well-defined disturbance but with thunderclouds displaced to the north-east of its nominal centre, indicative of some upper level wind shear. Should this decrease, this may develop into a tropical storm but is likely to be short-lived as it passes into an area of hostile environmental conditions late tomorrow. Whatever and however, this is destined to remain a fish storm.
Disturbance Thirty is now 450 miles south-sou’west of the Cape Verde Islands moving west at 10 knots. This is currently experiencing some strong easterly wind shear but still has some indications of intent and seems to be shaping up for a pass to the north of the Leeward Islands in about a week. This is highly speculative and an unreliable time frame to predict anything at this time of year. For no other reason than pure hunch, I think this needs watching. Early days.
Stand by for muck and filth from EARL in the western Atlantic, otherwise stand easy.