High rollers from EARL expected to reach Newfoundland.
From west to east:
Hurricane EARL is now centred 475 miles south of Newfoundland and is moving to the north-east at 20 knots. This is still packing a punch with winds gusting 95 knots with a tropical storm force windfield of 350 miles which equates to a hurricane severity index (HSI) rating of 18 (11 for size and 7 for intensity). Past peak now, EARL continues to weaken as it transitions into an extratropical storm overnight tonight which should produce gusty winds over to south-east Newfoundland and some coastal flooding risk from high rollers.
Disturbance Twenty Nine is now centred around 900 miles east-nor’east of the northern Leeward Islands moving to the north-west at 16 knots. This will continue to weaken as it pushes into Atlantic anonymity and may dissipate soon.
Disturbance Thirty is now 400 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands to the west-nor’west at 15 knots. This has weakened over the past 24 hours due to some strong easterly wind shear and it is now unlikely that this will develop significantly before reaching the Windward and Leeward Islands late next week. The disturbance is expected to cross the eastern Caribbean thereafter but it is rather early to predict and at the moment, intensity, track and direction are unclear. Still worth watching in my view.
More filth from EARL in the north-west Atlantic otherwise stand easy.