Two marginal cyclone developments on long range radar.
From west to east:
Dark horse Disturbance Thirty has open out slightly into a tropical wave that is currently centred 650 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon, more or less 3 days’ steaming east-sou’east of Barbados. This is westbound at 15 knots and has some surface rotation and disorganised shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it. The disturbance will track a midge’s north of west over the next few days to cross the Leeward Islands on Thursday. By Saturday, the tropical wave is expected to be in the vicinity of Hispaniola where environmental conditions will be marginally favourable for consolidation and development but still not seen as a threat by the boffins.
Newbuild Disturbance Thirty One has just slipped the African coast and is expected to track towards the west-nor’west over the next few days to move across the Cape Verde Islands on Tuesday with enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions ahead as it travels west will be marginally favourable for development. Early days.