Two potential developments seaborne.
From west to east:
Disturbance Thirty is an open tropical wave centred around 650 miles north of the mouth of the Amazon headed west-nor’west at 12 knots, which is around three days’ steaming east of the Leeward Islands. This seems to have a predictable course now, shaping up for the islands of the north-east Caribbean for Friday then tracking across the US/British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, then nearing Hispaniola on Sunday and could potentially approach the Bahamas in about a week. It’s a fairly long range forecast at the moment which I’m never completely happy with, but as good a stab as any. The system appears to be slowly becoming better organised, with aerial imagery showing some shape to its thunderstorm pattern and a hint of rotation. Environmental conditions along its predicted track are expected to become more favourable for development and there is a chance of this becoming a tropical depression or weak tropical storm, much against the forecast of any of the professional agencies, but very much in line with our own hunch, even before this left the African coast. A weather watch may be needed by the weekend.
Disturbance Thirty One is also an open wave, crossing the Cape Verde Islands now and headed west-nor’west at 12 knots. We don’t usually get any firm ideas until disturbances such as this leave the islands in their wake but this also has some favourable development conditions ahead.
For the time being, stand easy.