Four storms on radar, FIONA battering Nova Scotia, IAN threat to Florida.
From west to east:
Hurricane FIONA, described by the Canadian authorities as an ‘historic, extreme event’ is ashore over Nova Scotia having made a landfall on the Canso Peninsula near Guysborough with winds gusting 100 knots, a hurricane force windfield radius of 175 miles and a tropical storm force windfield of over 400 miles. This is a huge, destructive storm. Currently headed north-east at 10 knots, FIONA has a hurricane severity index rating (HSI) of 22 out of a possible 50 points (16 for and 6 for intensity). Now crossing the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the storm is decelerating and will move more to the northeast later today as it weakens, then accelerates to the north-nor’east and will weaken further over Labrador tomorrow. Hurricane force winds are still possible across the northern part of Cape Breton Island and across south-western Newfoundland over the next few hours before the storm weakens below hurricane force. Tidal surges are continuing across the entire windfield and significant damage from wind and tidal surge is expected. Widespread and long-lasting power outages are also likely. Heavy rainfall may also produce areas of flash flooding and of course, flood damage cannot be ruled out.
As anticipated, Tropical Disturbance Nine developed overnight and has formed tropical storm IAN. Currently 260 miles south-east of Kingston, Jamaica heading west at 12 knots, this is rather weak at the moment as it is being sheared by upper level winds. These are easing up and a rapid intensification is expected soon and this is likely to produce winds gusting hurricane force as it passes Grand Cayman overnight tomorrow and over 100 knots when it will make its first landfall over western Cuba on Monday. IAN will relaunch into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, close to Havana and develop further, possibly reaching category three as it makes for south-western Florida with a landfall on Wednesday. There is some chatter on the wire of this having a second rejuvenation when it enters the Atlantic and make a sweep of the eastern seaboard, but this is highly speculative at this time.
Disturbance Thirty Four is almost midway between the African coast and the Caribbean but well to the north of the convergence zone and unlikely to make much more headway towards the west. This will loaf about in the central Atlantic without really impressing anyone before dissipating in a few days’ time.
Pointless storm GASTON is now centred about 90 miles west of the central Azores, heading west at 10 knots. This lost soul is losing tropical characteristics and could disappear into obscurity overnight tonight.
As expected, Disturbance Thirty Five beefed up overnight and formed tropical storm HERMINE. Centred around 300 miles north-east of the Cape Verde Islands and moving to the north at 12 knots, HERMINE looks to be shaping up for an early turn into Atlantic anonymity with rapid weakening.
Stand by for hurricane force winds, tidal surges and heavy rain around the Gulf of St Lawrence and early warning of a potential hurricane threat to Florida next week.