IAN to pass Cayman Islands at hurricane strength
From west to east:
Tropical Storm IAN is now 320 miles south of Grand Cayman moving west at 12 knots. This is beginning to turn to the north-west and should strengthen and pass south-west of the Cayman islands tomorrow morning as a hurricane and develop quickly into a strong one, then cross western Cuba on Tuesday before moving toward Florida. IAN is now expected to parallel the west coast of Florida with winds touching 100 knots, possibly reaching category three before landfall on Thursday somewhere between Tampa and the Florida panhandle although any such forecast is highly uncertain at this stage. I’d go for further north than south in this predicted range but should heed my own words of caution about unrealistic forecasts.
Extratropical Storm FIONA is now tracking into south-eastern Quebec and across Labrador this morning, slowly weakening as it gallops north at 28 knots, fanning out winds of gale force across the region. Conditions are improving for Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland after a destructive strike.
Oddball GASTON remains a tropical storm with 50 knot winds observed overnight. Currently 200 south-west of the Azores, GASTON is now moving to the west at 10 knots. Where next is anyone’s guess but this is showing some interest in an approaching front which should absorb GASTON as it passes by tomorrow. Fish and sailors only take note.
Disturbance Thirty Four is still more of less stationary midway between the Caribbean and the African coast. This is expected to curve north into Atlantic anonymity in the next day or two.
HERMINE was short lived and has been declassified by the National Hurricane Centre. Redevelopment is not expected as it starts to fill, around half way between the Cape Verde and Canary Islands. This was actually earmarked as a strong hurricane for the eastern seaboard by the Canadian guy. On the other hand, we picked up FIONA three days before the professional agencies and continued predicting it to be a stinker while it was written off by all until it passed the Leeward Islands. Just saying, that’s all.
Stand by for worsening conditions across the north-west Caribbean, the Cayman Islands and Cuba.