Storm cones for IAN. Seven bells for FIONA.

| Storm Report 2022

From west to east:

Centred 65 miles south-sou’west of Grand Cayman, IAN has been upgraded to a hurricane by the National Hurricane Centre in the last hour. Headed north-nor’west at 12 knots, producing winds touching 80 knots with a 90 mile radius windfield, IAN has a hurricane severity index (HSI) rating of just 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 for size and 4 for intensity) but is deepening rapidly without shear aloft and over warm water and is likely to be well past that now, perhaps as high as 22 (9 for size and 13 for intensity) prior to landfall in western Cuba which would be a category three hurricane with winds in excess of 100 knots and a widening windfield up to 150 miles.  This will pack a punch when it makes landfall in Cuba but of course all eyes are on Florida. IAN will weaken slightly as it clips western Cuba but is expected to rally again quite quickly although there is increasing upper level wind shear over the north-east Gulf which might take the edge off impact prior to landfall.  The track from Cuba to landfall overnight on Thursday is one which will parallel or coincide with the coast of Florida but distance off is uncertain at the moment, but a powerful landfall with damage from wind and tidal surge is looking highly likely.

It’s seven bells for FIONA which continues to slowly weaken as it heads over cold waters of the Labrador Sea towards Greenland. Winds across eastern Canada have dropped below tropical storm strength.

GASTON has concluded its eccentric Atlantic meandering and weakened beyond recognition some 400 miles west of the Azores. Done and dusted.

Another aimless wanderer, Disturbance Thirty Four is in the mid-Atlantic, around half way between the Caribbean and African coast and a touch north of the convergence zone.  This is drifting west but likely to be steered north by upper level shear. There is a brief development window, but conditions will quickly deteriorate again in two to three days’ time.

All that remains of HERMINE is a very wet day over the Canary Islands. Also done and dusted.

Stand by for hurricane conditions across the north-western Caribbean and landfall in western Cuba