Hurricane IAN tracking across central Florida

| Storm Report 2022

From west to east:

As we commented yesterday, with a significant live meteorological event taking place, particularly over land, our daily bulletin will be superceded almost immediately by readily available media. Nonetheless, all eyes are on hurricane IAN. Currently centred 20 miles west of Cape Canaveral, this is still a category one hurricane, albeit weakening and moving northeast at 8 knots. Typically, major hurricanes lose formation quickly over land but IAN strengthened rapidly – 67% of its power was generated in the 22 hours before landfall – which formed a robust convection cycle and provided longevity. This may lose its hurricane intensity in the next hour or so but at the least, will be a strong tropical storm by the time it reaches the Atlantic later today. Once seaborne, IAN is expected to turn to the north and head for a third landfall somewhere along the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas. Further untroubled warm waters await when this reaches the sea, and a return to hurricane intensity is likely. Maximum sustained winds over central Florida are currently at 70 knots gusting 85 in the south-eastern quadrant with a tropical storm windfield of 175 miles which equates to an HSI rating of 11 out of a possible 50 (5 for size and 6 for intensity). The greatest threat at the moment is from heavy rain to the north of the eye.

Tropical Depression Eleven is now centred 900 miles west-nor’west of the Cape Verde Islands headed north-nor’west at 10 knots. near 11 mph. Environmental conditions for development are not favourable and this may dissipate overnight.

Disturbance Thirty Six has formed off the coast of Africa and is moving to the west at 10 knots. A westerly track is expected over the next few days. Conditions appear to be generally favourable for development. Weather watch needed.

Stand by for continued hurricane conditions, storm surge and heavy rain over central Florida.