New disturbance north of the Orinoco

Sunday 12th June 2016

Disturbance four is more or less ashore centred over Belize as a rather elongated trough. This extends from the Yucatan peninsula into the east Pacific across the coast of El Salvador and is moving west at 15 knots. This is still tied in with an upper level low. The northern end of the disturbance and upper level low will move over the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche today and will produce enhanced showers and thunderstorms across the Yucatan and southern Mexico today and for the next 36 to 48 hours.

Disturbance six has piped up almost due north of, and close to, the mouth of the Orinoco river. At the moment this is little more than a tropical wave moving west at 13 knots. This has a slight chance of tropical development over the next week as it moves across the Caribbean and into the Yucatan peninsula by next weekend. The tea-leaf readers are broking a frontal system that is expected to emerge from the coast of the Carolinas before stalling. An area of low pressure is expected to form somewhere along the front next weekend. There is a great deal of uncertainty on the development of this area as there will be strong westerly winds aloft off the coast of the Carolinas and Georgia which will prohibit tropical development. Regardless of tropical development, this low may bring increased moisture for the southeastern United States.

Stand easy.

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