Two new disturbances seaborne
Tuesday 21st June 2016
The remnants of DANIELLE are over eastern Mexico. Heavy rain is causing flash flooding across portions of eastern and southern Mexico today and will continue into Wednesday. Disturbance seven has popped up half way between Aruba and Port Au Prince and is moving to the west at 15 knots producing showers and thunderstorms across the central Caribbean and north into Hispaniola. This system is moving into an environment unfavourable for tropical development however will produce enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity across central America and into the Yucatan peninsula on Thursday and Friday.
Disturbance eight is also a newcomer today, having formed in the central Atlantic and is moving to the west at 20 knots. Although the disturbance lacks any convection, there is a good bit of energy associated with it. At its current ground speed, the disturbance should move across the Lesser Antilles and enter the eastern Caribbean by this weekend, where it may produce a few squalls as it passes the islands. Beyond then, there is some model support for development as the disturbance reaches the southwest Caribbean late next week - they say. Bit early in my view. We will see.