Possible line squalls in Bay of Campeche

Thursday 23rd June 2016

Visible satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure is developing in association with disturbance seven which is currently ashore over the southern Yucatan peninsula. I normally write off disturbances once they are ashore but this is moving towards the southern Bay of Campeche where it will be seaborne again tomorrow and where conditions appear a little favourable for development. In any event the system is will bring squalls to the Bay of Campeche tomorrow and early Saturday with 40 knot gusts within line squalls.

Disturbance eight is now centred about 350 miles due north of the mouth of the Amazon and moving west at 18 knots. This track should continue for the next two to three days with a slight chance of tropical development next week. There is still some chatter of development in the northwest Caribbean which would take the system, as a developed cyclone, into the Gulf of Mexico and toward the northern Gulf coast. Still can't see it myself.

Stand easy.

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