Lumpy seas and squalls in northern Gulf

Tuesday 26th July 2016

A new disturbance designated nineteen was identified in the northern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Surface observations indicate that a weak area of low pressure developed along the southeast Louisiana coast and is now westbound. Whilst this is not expected to develop, it will bring widespread squalls across the northwest and north-central Gulf of Mexico with lumpy water and winds touching 55 knots as squalls pass, before this disappears ashore in Texas between now and Thursday.

Disturbance sixteen is centred between Haiti and Lake Maracaibo and is thrashing west at a pointless 21 knots. No development is expected with this tropical wave.

Disturbance seventeen is now around 550 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon still headed west. This has pulled the sticks back and dropped speed to 7 knots. This would normally be highly conducive to cyclonic development but there is still a donkey's breakfast of airflow aloft which will prevent this drawing vital heat and water from the sea surface thus unlikely to impress.

A second new disturbance - eighteen - has left the African coast and is moving slowly west. Conditions ahead have improved for development but by no means certain as things stand today.

Umbrellas along the Gulf coast otherwise stand easy.