Disturbance production steps up a gear

Wednesday 27th July 2016

General outlook from west to east Disturbance nineteen is brushing the coast of south western Louisiana, westbound at a little over walking pace. This system is interacting with land and won't develop but will be the cause of some heightened thunderstorm activity in Louisiana and eastern Texas today, as well as for the waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Disturbance sixteen is still quite weak and fading as it passes north of Haiti on its dash to the west-nor'west at a pointless, self-destructive speed. Disturbance seventeen is now centred around 450 miles north west of the mouth of the Amazon, on a westerly heading at approximately 14 knots. Conditions aloft are still rather messy so, aside from a few lusty squalls, this is unlikely to develop.

Disturbances eighteen and twenty have a few observers salivating. Eighteen is about 200 miles of the Cape Verde Islands. This is expected to nudge a little north of track on a west-nor'westerly track and eventually pass near or north of the Leeward Islands and head towards the Bahamas. Once it moves north of the Caribbean, some modellers are talking up a chance of tropical development. I'm not convinced.

Disturbance twenty is a chunky tropical wave that moved off of the coast of Africa yesterday. While there is a large area of squalls associated with the wave, environmental conditions are not expected to be favourable for development on this side of the pond but conditions may be more fertile when this reaches the Caribbean. Early days of course.

Stand easy.