Disturbance eighteen to enter the Caribbean

Saturday 30th July 2016

Disturbance eighteen is located about 550 miles east of Martinique racing a little north of west at 25 knots and due to enter the Caribbean tomorrow. Squalls aligned with this have wind gusts of 40 knots and bands of heavy rainfall which will impact the northern Windward and the Leeward Islands. Tomorrow and Monday, the disturbance will pass south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This system is showing signs of organisation but as yet no signs of a surface circulation. The very fast forward speed is likely to prevent tropical development during coming days however, once the system moves into the western Caribbean, environmental conditions are favourable for tropical development as it approaches the Bay of Campeche.

Current models indicate that the system will lose some energy as it interacts with the larger islands, however this is only marginal and meaningful development can't be ruled out. Irrespective of this, increased squalls are likely late next week for the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Disturbance twenty is now about 275 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is westbound at 12 knots. Squalls associated with the disturbance have decreased in intensity and radius. At present, this has little chance of development but might perk up when it reaches the Caribbean.

Stand easy.

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