Tropical storm expected shortly in western Caribbean

Monday 1st August 2016

Disturbance eighteen is currently 1,000 miles east of the coast of Belize and starting to lose ground speed, now down to a more sensible 14 knots. This will allow the system to develop and is likely to upgrade to a tropical storm later today or tonight as it continues its westerly course. This system is expected to run ashore on the Yucatan peninsula late on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning before surfacing again in the Bay of Campeche but with unpredictable intensity before a final landfall near Veracruz, Mexico on Saturday. In the run towards the Yucatan, any sustained tropical storm force winds should remain south of the Dominican Republic and just south of Jamaica. However, heavy rainfall remains a concern for both islands. This system has a current hurricane severity index of 2 (1 size / 1 intensity) and a projected maximum of 6 (2 size / 4 intensity).

Disturbance twenty is now 500 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon and moving west at 21 knots. The disturbance will move across the Leeward Islands late this week. As things stand, this seems to have little chance of developing. Disturbance twenty one has formed off the west coast of Africa and passing the Cape Verde Islands now. Early days.

Gusty conditions over the central Caribbean otherwise stand easy.