Tropical storm EARL headed for Belize
Tuesday 2nd August 2016
Disturbance eighteen has reduced speed and as a consequence been allowed to develop surface circulation becoming weak tropical storm EARL as it nears Central America. Currently 480 miles east-sou'east of Belize City with winds of between 45 and 60 knots, the current hurricane severity index is 3 (1 size / 2 intensity) and a predicted maximum 5 (2 size / 3 intensity) with peak predicted tropical wind radius of 110 miles.
Strong upper level shear is affecting EARL which may limit development. The expected track is now a westerly trek across Belize and Yucatan during the next couple of days then a launch into the southern Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. We will have a clearer idea tomorrow as interaction after landfall introduces uncertainly into how EARL will perform in the south western Gulf.
Disturbance twenty is now centred 300 miles due north of the mouth of the Anazon and moving to the west at an eye watering 22 knots which is expected to continue for the next few days and move across the Leeward Islands late this week.
Disturbance twenty one is now two days west of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving west at 18 knots. There is no sign of organisation yet but in any event it will produce enhanced showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles next Sunday and Monday. Storm cones aloft in Belize.