EARL to make landfall as cat 1 hurricane

Wednesday 3rd August 2016

Tropical storm EARL has dropped its ground speed to a gentle 10 knots and is continuing to nudge at hurricane strength as a consequence. Currently centred around 200 miles east-sou'east of Belize City and headed west, the only certainty is track. This has shifted slightly south overnight and this could mean EARL bypasses the Bay of Campeche altogether, insh'Allah.

At present, the storm has a hurricane severity rating of 6 (2 size / 4 intensity) and a forecast maximum 10 (3 size / 7 intensity) with an anticipated tropical storm wind force radius of 100 miles. Landfall is expected south of Belize City overnight tonight as a category 1 hurricane with winds of around 85 knots. In the short term, some structural damage and flooding ashore in the vicinity of landfall are to be expected and in some areas, precautionary evacuation is taking place. Whether or not the Bay of Campeche dodges a bullet remains to be seen, but at the very least some strong winds and lumpy water can be expected over the next day or two.

Disturbance twenty is now 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and westbound at 15 knots. This will pass the Leeward Islands later this week. Upper level shear is keeping development at bay.

Disturbance twenty one is smack dead centre of the Atlantic now, some 2,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and chugging west at a steady 15 knots. This will produce enhanced showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles next Sunday and Monday but is not showing any potential for development.

Stand by Belize City and all points south.

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