EARL skimming the beach in the southern Bay of Campeche

Friday 5th August 2016

Tropical storm EARL is now centred almost smack bang on the most southerly extremity of the Bay of Campeche, skimming the beach westbound at 10 knots. Any guest appearance over the water is going to be marginal now but should generate enough energy to remain a tropical storm until tonight. Regardless, the primary impact will be heavy rain. EARL is past peak with a hurricane severity rating of 2 (1 size / 1 intensity) and a tropical force windfield of just 50 miles. By this evening, it's expected to move into the southern Veracruz coast and weaken quickly as it tracks inland.

A new frontal disturbance twenty two is expected to form from a stationary boundary across the northeast Gulf next week and is forecast to cause numerous squalls in the area. There is a chance that the development and persistence of these squalls over the very warm water of the Gulf of Mexico may lead to tropical storm formation around next Wednesday. Any such development would likely track north and move inland between the mouth of the Mississippi and the eastern Florida Panhandle next Thursday or Friday. Regardless of whether or not tropical development occurs, very heavy rain is likely from southern Mississippi eastward through the Florida Panhandle and possibly southward to near Tampa next week.

Elsewhere, tropical disturbance twenty passing the northernmost Leeward Islands and twenty one two days astern are both headed slightly north of west at 14 knots but neither showing signs of development.

Stand by for heavy rainfall across the southern Bay of Campeche.