EARL bringing rain to Mexico City

Saturday 6th August 2016

Tropical Storm EARL is about 80 miles west of Veracruz and almost a remnant low. Flooding rains are likely to spread as far west as Mexico City.

Disturbance twenty two is an area of squalls associated with a trough of low pressure in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This trough is expected to linger in the northeastern Gulf and over the southeastern United States through much of next week. Confidence is increasing that an area of low pressure will form however it is uncertain if the low will form over the water or if it will remain over land. If the low moves over the water, there will be a good chance of tropical development anywhere from next Tuesday through next Friday although the smart money is on the low forming over land.

Regardless of tropical development, the disturbance is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flooding for the southeast United States. The greatest threat of flooding will occur in the eastern Florida Panhandle through the Big Bend area of Florida. If tropical development were to occur, the system would most likely move towards the Florida Panhandle or the Big Bend area of Florida. There are no indications that this time that any developed system would move as far west as Louisiana or Mississippi.

Disturbance twenty one is located over the Virgin Islands and dashing west-nor'west at 20 knots. A reduction in forward speed is expected, along with a turn to the north, during the next few days. Once the system moves northeast of the Bahamas in the middle of next week, models are starting to indicate that an area of low pressure will form. At this time, the most likely scenario is that the system should remain off of the eastern seaboard.

Disturbance twenty is over Haiti. Strong wind shear should cause the disturbance to dissipate within the next day or so.

Stand by for rain across southern Mexico.